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Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Interest Rate Decision Jul 31, 2024 02:00PM ET
3
Weeks
0
Days
7
Hours
58
Minutes
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 31, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.673
5.00 - 5.25
3.1%
5.25 - 5.50
96.9%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 3.1% | 3.1% | 9.3% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 96.9% | 96.9% | 90.7% |
Updated: Jul 10, 2024 05:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 18, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.755
4.75 - 5.00
2.3%
5.00 - 5.25
72.5%
5.25 - 5.50
25.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.8% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 72.5% | 72.5% | 59.8% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 25.2% | 25.2% | 34.5% |
Updated: Jul 10, 2024 05:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Nov 07, 2024 01:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.950
4.50 - 4.75
1.0%
4.75 - 5.00
33.0%
5.00 - 5.25
51.8%
5.25 - 5.50
14.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 33.0% | 31.6% | 22.3% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 51.8% | 52.7% | 52.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 14.2% | 14.7% | 23.9% |
Updated: Jul 10, 2024 05:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 18, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.060
4.25 - 4.50
0.8%
4.50 - 4.75
25.3%
4.75 - 5.00
47.3%
5.00 - 5.25
23.3%
5.25 - 5.50
3.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 25.3% | 24.2% | 16.9% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 47.3% | 47.6% | 44.3% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 23.3% | 23.9% | 31.2% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 3.4% | 3.5% | 6.2% |
Updated: Jul 10, 2024 05:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jan 29, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.180
4.00 - 4.25
0.5%
4.25 - 4.50
17.0%
4.50 - 4.75
39.9%
4.75 - 5.00
31.3%
5.00 - 5.25
10.1%
5.25 - 5.50
1.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 17.0% | 16.3% | 10.0% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 39.9% | 39.8% | 32.1% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 31.3% | 31.9% | 37.1% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 10.1% | 10.4% | 17.4% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.8% |
Updated: Jul 10, 2024 05:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 12, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.405
3.75 - 4.00
0.3%
4.00 - 4.25
9.5%
4.25 - 4.50
29.5%
4.50 - 4.75
35.2%
4.75 - 5.00
19.7%
5.00 - 5.25
5.2%
5.25 - 5.50
0.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 9.5% | 9.2% | 5.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 29.5% | 29.3% | 20.2% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 35.2% | 35.4% | 34.4% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 19.7% | 20.0% | 28.0% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 5.2% | 5.3% | 10.6% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% |
Updated: Jul 10, 2024 05:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Apr 23, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.510
3.50 - 3.75
0.2%
3.75 - 4.00
6.3%
4.00 - 4.25
22.6%
4.25 - 4.50
33.2%
4.50 - 4.75
25.1%
4.75 - 5.00
10.2%
5.00 - 5.25
2.1%
5.25 - 5.50
0.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 6.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 22.6% | 21.8% | 12.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 33.2% | 33.1% | 27.6% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 25.1% | 25.7% | 31.1% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 10.2% | 10.8% | 19.0% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 2.1% | 2.3% | 5.9% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
Updated: Jul 10, 2024 05:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 04, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.725
3.50 - 3.75
1.7%
3.75 - 4.00
10.5%
4.00 - 4.25
25.3%
4.25 - 4.50
31.2%
4.50 - 4.75
21.3%
4.75 - 5.00
8.2%
5.00 - 5.25
1.6%
5.25 - 5.50
0.1%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 10.5% | 9.3% | 5.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 25.3% | 24.2% | 16.4% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 31.2% | 31.6% | 28.4% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 21.3% | 22.6% | 28.2% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 8.2% | 9.0% | 15.9% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 4.7% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
Updated: Jul 10, 2024 05:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 16, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.800
3.25 - 3.50
1.4%
3.50 - 3.75
8.9%
3.75 - 4.00
22.7%
4.00 - 4.25
30.2%
4.25 - 4.50
23.0%
4.50 - 4.75
10.5%
4.75 - 5.00
2.8%
5.00 - 5.25
0.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 8.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 22.7% | 22.2% | 13.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 30.2% | 30.6% | 24.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 23.0% | 23.7% | 28.3% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 10.5% | 10.8% | 19.5% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 8.0% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.8% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
Updated: Jul 10, 2024 05:35AM EDT
Fed Fund Rates
News
Dollar slips ahead of payrolls; sterling gains post election
By Investing.com - Jul 05, 2024
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar retreated in early European trade Friday ahead of the key monthly jobs report, while sterling edged higher after the result of the U.K general election. At 03:55 ET...
Morgan Stanley sees jobs growth slowing; payrolls seen +210,000
By Investing.com - Jul 04, 2024
3
Investing.com - The U.S. monthly jobs report is due for release on Friday, and investors will be keen to study this as they look for fresh indications on when the Federal Reserve might start to cut...
US dollar rally unlikely to be sustained going forward - UBS
By Investing.com - Jun 27, 2024
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar has been in demand of late, climbing close to its highest level of the year. However, this rally is unlikely to be sustained in the coming months, according to UBS. At...
Analysis
US Unemployment has been on a Rise. What to Expect Next?
By Octa - Jul 04, 2024
Fed officials are paying close attention to the labor market. Unemployment has been steadily rising for the last 3 months. However, the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 4.0%, repeating...
NZD/USD Continues to Climb Amidst USD Weakness
By Andrey Goilov - Jul 04, 2024
The NZD/USD pair has extended its upward movement into a third session, reaching 0.6106 amid growing weaknesses in the US dollar. Negative shifts in US economic indicators, particularly June's...
Should You Buy the Dip In Nvidia Stock? Here's What the Fundamentals Say
By Günay Caymaz - Jun 25, 2024
11
Nvidia stock plunged 15% in 3 days, losing its crown as the most valuable company in the world. Analysts debate if this is a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction. We analyze...